It was 60 days ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
